Black Swan

The phenomenal international bestseller that shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they`re impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. `Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide ... I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person` Will Self, Independent on Sunday `He leaps like some superhero of the mind` Boyd Tonkin, Independent `Funny, quirky and thought-provoking ... confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot` John Cornwell, Sunday Times `Idiosyncratically brilliant` Niall Ferguson, Sunday Telegraph `Great fun ... brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling` Stephen J. Dubner, Co-Author of Freakonomics